Saturday, May 11, 2019


I want you to notice something.  Tony Martinez got the most mail ballots.  Older people and people out of town tend to vote incumbent.  It is kind of like a blind vote for incumbent because they really have little information on the candidates.

A lower voter turn out can make for a better choice in candidates.  Had 20% turned out, Tony Martinez would be in the run-offs.

This is an election of targeted voters.  The elections office also published the precinct by precinct returns.  The candidates now know where the votes are. 

If Trey and Cabler do their job, I think people will be surprised about how many targeted voters turn out.

The BV brought the analysis of the blind female voter when there is a qualified female with money on the ballot.  The female cannot be defeated.  This model is no used by all female candidates.

More on why a low voter turnout in the March 2020 primaries will help new comers.  But, after the run-offs.


The BV called Jessica as the outright winner before everyone announced. I have an analytical model which works.  Just because I support someone does not mean my model says they will win. 

Trump's chaos many times work to his advantage.  But in a month or two we will know how this battle with the House will end.  It could guarantee a Trump victory, or insure the Democrats win.

I am already ready to call the Democratic Primary winner and his VP pick.  The numbers are in and solid.

As to Cameron County turnout, I'm not sure about the turn-out. Trump will win Texas in the end. O'Roucke and Castro are out of the Primary so Texans will have very little interest in the presidential primary.  Castro will drop out before the first Primary/Caucus.  If O'Roucke stays for the first votes, he will drop out after New Hampshire, but for sure after South Carolina.


Anonymous said...

You are so right on the target voters and that they know where the votes are.
I am a 50+ woman voter, have ALWAYS voted. NOT for party but for issues and person running. I have gotten calls from Martines (surprised me with a San Antonio area code) Today I got a call from Cabler supporters asking for support, and funny, but have not gotten any calls from Mendez supporters.
I would only vote for an incumbent if I thought he/she is doing a good job. My concerns about my town are being ignored? My vote will always go to the person that has at least some knowledge of the issue. I DONT
vote for a person because she is a woman like me, or because he/she seems nice. WHAT do they bring to the table? What does their public service say about them?

BobbyWC said...

great post. I did a post on a study about phone calls. I think it was like 6 out of a hundred actually take the call. I do not remember. Today;s modern elections are done through social media. It works. Trey is working social media and his numbers showed itg.

And I will be doing a post on this but I am hearing identification of general issues but not proposed promises or solutions across the board.

So I am left to look at management style and support Trey because he has proven himselve in helping to develop downtown which is important to raising tax revenues for other issues, But I am otherwise short on specifics.

As to management we all know Cabler failed. So on the issue of successful management Trey destroys Cabler.

We are more than a month away from election day and a month away from early voting.

I expect we will see a lot more social media and mailers soon.,

But the studies show phone calls do not get out the vote - Martinez numbers prove that, A mailer is more likely to be read.

Thanks for a great discussion. It was my pleasure to respond to your post.

And yes vote they was you think is best and not want anyone tells you or based on endorsemens.

Thanks for being an informed voter

Bobby WC