Monday, May 6, 2019


A VERY SMALL WINDOW FOR A VICTORY FOR JESSICA

I want to be clear - this window is very, very small.  I intended to do this for both Jessica and Rick Longoria, but I cannot find any evidence Rick has a campaign.  Word is he is sick so I just do not see him being able to do what needs to get done to beat Nurith.  Unlike John Cowan Nurith hit the block walking and is now a known figure in Southmost at a personal level.

FIRST, THE LESSONS FROM ROUND ONE:

A small turnout kept people from just voting incumbent which would have worked to Tony Martinez's advantage.  A smaller turn out means a more deliberate vote.  Both candidates now have the information of who voted and which candidate did best in each precinct.  This allows for a lot of targeted block walking.  Although I will admit, block walking in an At Large Race is nearly impossible - but the numbers are small so maybe not.

Second lesson - Martinez and Ahumada went very negative in their mailers and the people did not like it.  Also a man cannot go negative on a woman.  It does not matter in this case because John would never go negative on a woman anyway.

BASED ON THE RETURNS

Jessica's block walkers can do a door to door to the people who voted against John.  The precincts where John lost are known.  This makes it easier to target these voters.  I admit this is still a big long shot.

Every other candidate who lost must back Jessica and get their block walkers out for her. She has to turn out all of the voters who did not vote for John.  If she does not she has no chance.  If just one other candidate endorses John she is sunk

FINALLY

This one is tricky.  John basically bought his position.  Pink Ape is a service.  Trey I am certain did all of his own strategizing and Pink Ape did the art work and mailing.  Nurith worked the door to door.  Her mailers helped but her unrelenting block walking also helped.  John just threw money at Pink Ape and sat back.  This is his weakness in a low deliberate voter turn out.

If Jessica can get the message out John in buying the position without making it a judgment on money or success she may flip it.

BUT I AGREE THIS IS A VERY, VERY SMALL WINDOW AND A LONG SHOT



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