Wednesday, November 7, 2018


THERE WAS A BLUE WAVE AND THE REPUBLICAN'S FUTURE IS VERY DIM

THE REPUBLICAN SENATE:  Weeks ago the BV predicted the Republicans would increase their majority in the Senate.  The Republicans holding the Senate means nothing in terms of the greater picture, except judicial appointments.  Well before the election got heated every talking head agreed because the overwhelming majority of the seats up for election were Democrat, the Democrats had a major up hill battle in terms of taking the Senate.  The Senate races were not a general election.  The results would have been different had every Senate seat been on the ballot.

THE HOUSE

The above is an easy conclusion when you look at the House races.  For Jeff Sessions of Texas to lose his Republican seat, a Blue Wave had to have occurred.  All over Texas Republican House members lost to Democrats.  Beto helped to flip 6 Republican held seats to the Democrats.  As the final numbers are calculated, it may be said Beto gave the Democrats the House of Representatives or at least a very strong majority.

BETO EFFECT

Although Beto lost, he won.  The final numbers show Beto beat Cruz in Tarrant County, albeit by a small margin.  Trump won Tarrant County by 9 points.  Beto delivered all of the Democratic wins.

Republicans in Dallas and the surrounding counties are shocked.  14 years after Dallas County vanquished the Republican judges, Dallas and the surround counties vanquished every Dallas Court of Appeals Republican Justice.  It was a massacre.

The LRGV remains solid Democrat.  The Court of Appeals will remain solid Democrat.  Vela won handily for the House.  Eddie Treviño for County Judge destroyed Cascos.  In the LRGV we are not going to tolerate anyone who associates with the divisive and hate filled Republican Party.

I will say Hasse did better than expected, but Cortez was a sure fire win from the beginning.

BISD

Only the BV called this one spot on.  It was not hard to call.  Any female who can compete with money will win the blind female vote in Brownsville and Cameron County.  This is a given.  While Presas-Garcia had a good showing, Drue Brown out spent her.  The returns are interesting because the women appeared to have gotten 50% more or less of the vote with the men splitting the other 50% of the vote.

The male race while uncertain told us Castro would surpass the 10,000 vote mark based on past experience.  Elizondo had too much public baggage.

The fact Otis lost to Castro tells us Sylvia Atkinson had zero effect on the election.  Tipton and Brown won on the blind female vote and nothing else.  Otis lost because people are tired of recycled former Trustees.  The same for Caty.  Sylvia could not help Otis.

Now everyone knows I believe Castro is not qualified to sit on the BISD Board based on a past felony conviction.  But at this point it is fair to say Sylvia would be hanging herself to challenge Castro taking his seat so that Otis Powers wins.  If she starts with litigation her majority could fall apart.

Sylvia's majority is herself, Minerva, Tipton and Brown - with two swing votes which could help her.  Even if Elizondo or Rodriguez could get the fourth vote to challenge Castro, would they? It would mean Otis Powers taking a seat, and giving Sylvia another vote is something they will never do.

So lets sit back and see if Castro mixes things up.

THE FUTURE FOR TEXAS

If the Beto effect continues, with national Democrats already looking at him for a presidential run, in 2020 Texas will be in play in the presidential election.  Democrats in state wide elections would struggle to hit 40%. Last night the majority got 47-48% of the vote.  2020 will be as Blue as Blue can get.  The Republicans will be run out of Texas.

No comments: