Monday, March 12, 2018


WHERE WE ARE, AND WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO BRING MORE CHANGE IN THE REMAINING THREE ELECTIONS THIS YEAR, RUN-OFFS, PORT AND TSC, BISD, AND NOVEMBER GENERAL ELECTIONS

NOVEMBER:  It is too early to draw down on the BISD candidates.  Much is to be done.  We need to see how the Elia Cornejo-Lopez lawsuit goes, and how the case I have been talking about plays out in court.  The child appears to be getting all services, but Baltazar Salazar mislead the TEA with documents and evidence and now that  will be headed to court.  I thought we were done, but when dealing with someone as  dishonest as Baltazar Salazar, and Cesar Lopez's support of falsification of information to protect BISD's corruption you are never done.

The the exception of the SBOE race between Hasse and Cortez, and the County Judge race we here in Cameron County really have no purpose in the November elections.  While I think a few state Senate and House seats now held by Republicans will be won by Democrats, none of this will play out here.  While the Democrats will have a better showing for statewide office come November, the numbers are still not there to show a Democrat can win any statewide office.  The Republicans were slow to turn out during early voting, but made up for it on election day. 

The big money for the Democrats is going to go to flip House seats whether in Texas or elsewhere.  Beto at this time is not within winning range, but pundits seem to believe that he helped with the Democratic turnout which was its highest in 10 years, which may not mean much as to Beto given the number of young people who now vote, and the changing demographics in Texas.   But so long as the money believes Beto can turn out votes, even though he cannot win they will donate  to get voters to turn out in the state Senate and House races and this is where he can make a difference.

RACE FOR COUNTY JUDGE

No matter what you think of Eddie TreviƱo he voted against LNG, which brings him a lot of votes from the money on SPI, and coastal areas.  It is sickening to drive up 48 to Port Isabel and see the damage already done to the environment.

Cascos cannot rid himself of Cris Valadez and Cris will continue to cost him votes.  Plus there is the Austin fiasco which sent Cascos home.  The real facts will come out. and Cascos will become just another politico without the kind of support you need to turn a solid Democratic County to vote for a Republican.

SBOE RACE

I am calling it for Ruben Cortez.  The district is solid Democrat based on the voter turn out. Some Democrats may flip and for vote for Hasse. Also there may have been a handful of Republicans who voted in the Democratic Primary in the counties controlled by Democrats so they would have a voice.  But the numbers are not there.  The SBOE is too important to the Democrats to not back Cortez 100%.  The Republicans will be too busy defending state Senate and House seats to be bothered with a SBOE election in a solid Democratic district.

THE LOCAL RACES - WHAT WE WON AND WHAT WE STILL NEED TO DO

So far the biggest loser was Team Saenz.  We also held the Betancourt dynasty at bay.

We need to keep this in mind during the run-off.  Saenz needs a clear message that he is toxic to anyone he supports.  This message will get the machines which support him to look for a better candidate in 2020.

We must send a message to Dominguez concerning his vote on LNG.  This will send a message to the Port Commissioners they messed up.  You cannot fight multiple battles on multiple fronts.  But a message to Dominguez will be heard at the Port and will get other candidates to rethink their position.  If you want to play this election on the complete failure Oliviera has been for his District you are looking at this the wrong way.  It is about fixing the damage and the most pressing issue in terms of damage is LNG.  

THE PORT AND TSC

I am waiting on guidance.  The Port is going to be a hard one.  I will not back anyone supported by Mike Hernandez.  The fact a candidate would associate with Mike tells me all I need to know.  But LNG is an issue.  This election really needs to be studied.

The TSC election is an unknown for me.  For every person who tells me so and so is part of political machine x some else tells me it is in fact their opponent. 

I am consulting with several people I believe have TSC's interests at heart and will go from there once I get verified information.  On TSC we need to vote for people who understand TSC and the problems they still face. 

1 comment:

BobbyWC said...

Give me the name of the lawyers, I will verify on his campaign finance reports and then if what you are saying is true, it will get a free standing post, and not just a comment. The concept behind your post is not new. In Congress both parties release their representatives to vote against the party when the result is known already anyway. It is to protect those representatives in districts which might be closer to the other party. What I am saying is your argument is viable, but as always I need to verify. This is why I am willing to do the research.

Bobby WC