Tuesday, December 19, 2017


BECAUSE FACTS MATTER THE TAX BILL HAS NOT PAST YET

The Senate is not even due to vote on the final bill until tonight.  There will be only 99 of the 100 Senators voting. We are  at 51 Republicans and 48 Dems and Independents. John McCain is out.  He is in Arizona, too sick from the treatment for brain cancer.

Senator Corker is in a hole the size of the Grand Canyon. Conflicting stories have the Senate House Conference Committee putting in a provision which will benefit Republican Senator Corker and his aide in the millions.  After the provision was added Corker went from a No vote to a Yes vote.  Democrats have already begun the investigation independent of a committee to prove the provision was added to buy Corker's vote so they can push for his indictment and those who may have conspired with him.

THE POLITICAL DOCTRINE PROBLEM

Rumblings in Washington have a lawsuit being filed alleging Corker and others were bought.  If you know the juridical methodology of the Supreme Court you know this kind of lawsuit would be considered a Political Question - hence they will never hear it.  But the mere filing of the suit could cost the Republicans big time in November 2018.

Senator Corker does not care what the people of Tenn think of him because he is retiring at the end of 2018.  But the 10 Republican Senators up for reelection in States won by Hillary Clinton, and with dismal polling numbers on how disliked this Tax Bill is, they have a lot to think about.

The national press will not report on, and the Senators will certainly not reveal what they are hearing on the phone or through emails from their constituents in these 10 states.  No matter how you run the numbers, if 2 Republicans vote with the Democrats, with McCain out of the picture, the Tax Bill fails.

It is too early to call the end vote.

BUT BECAUSE FACTS MATTER, THE SENATE HAS YET TO VOTE ON THE FINAL BILL

WHAT I WANT TO HAPPEN AND WHY

Most of my family and I have some type retirement account managed by a professional investor.  We are already seeing riskier investments being sold off in favor of the old standards.  This has nothing to do with Trump.  Historical analysis shows the stock market is about to hit a bubble.  A lot of money will be lost.

JCP's is looking at a possible class action suit because just before Black Friday its CEO sold off over $800,000 worth of stock, legally.  That sent a message to investors  the CEO did not see a bright future.  On balance the stock is down since Black Friday.  Last week it fell under $3.00 a share again.  Right now it is up to $3.07.  Within the last three weeks it was up to just under $3.50.  It started the year just under $10.00 a share.

Employees are reporting their retirement accounts have dropped nearly 25% in some cases because their contributions were being used to bolster JCP stock only to see their money lost.  The move just before Black Friday by the CEO will be the cornerstone of the class action by the employees and retirees if it happens.

THE POINT

With or without the Tax Reform the stock market and housing markets are expect to take a hit within the next year.  Because people are fact resistant, if it starts before the November 2018 elections, the Republicans will be blamed, even though it was going to happen anyway, and the Democrats will take the House and Senate, and Donald Trump will be a lame duck president for the last two years of his term.

To try and save himself he will work with the Dems to do another Tax Reform which they favor, thinking it will save him.  It will not, but in time the natural cycle of things will see the economy recover after a lot of suffering which will all be put on the Republicans.

The long game is making Donald Trump a lame duck. With or without the Republican Tax plan the market and housing bust is coming, so why not just let the Republicans take the blame and use it to our advantage to make Donald Trump a lame duck president?

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