Friday, July 31, 2015


The court house is abuzz with speculation.  But here is the deal.  The replacement will have to run for reelection come November 2016.  This means a Republican cannot win.  Cameron county is going to turnout with a large number of voters just marking Democrat.  Remember this will be a presidential election with Hillary Clinton heading the ticket.

Governor Abbott's only choice is to appoint someone as a Democrat who has a history of financial loyalty to the Republican Party.   Who that may be I do not know - oh there is a lot of speculation - but at this point that is all we have.

If Abbott is smart enough to appoint someone as a Democrat they will in all likelihood retain the seat.


Unless some snag has occurred - Judge Olvera should be taking the federal bench soon.  I would think Governor Abbott already has someone in mind as his replacement.


The rumors abound that if Greg Abbott appoints a Democrat to replace Rolando Olvera, then the Democrats who want to run will target Judge Elia Cornejo-Lopez.  They will be in for an uphill battle. 

Judicial elections are always interesting because it requires a practicing lawyer to attack a sitting judge.  Sometimes it has to be done - but before you enter that forum as a lawyer you better have a case, otherwise you will fail - wanting to be a judge is not a case.  Without a case your only choice is to go real negative and as Oscar Garcia learned - that does not work.


Anonymous said...

"The replacement will have to run for reelection come November 2016. This means a Republican cannot win."

Again you are wrong blimp. How do you explain Cascos's wins.....dummy?

BobbyWC said...

First of all in round one - SPI and Port Isabel organized against Gilbert Hinojosa over his attempt to sell the park. Party loyalty was thrown out the window to punish Hinojosa. Cascos did not win, Hinojosa lost.

In round two - Cascos nearly lost - Hinojosa was too involved in the race - Had Hinojosa not been so tied to Wood, Wood would have won.

In round three - did the Democrats even field a competent candidate? I think not. By round three he was an incumbent known by name and trusted.

Oscar Garcia could have won had he not changed parties and gone to the dumbest people on the planet for advice. He lost. Every Republican appointee as a judge has lost - only Rolando Olvera who chose to run as a Democrat has won.

Be became popular with the honest lawyers as a good judge. He made mistakes like everyone does. But on balance he was a good judge. He will now be a federal judge.

In a case coming out of his court he ruled summary judgment evidence must meet the same standards as trial evidence. The Court of Appeals reversed him. The Texas Supreme Court agreed with Judge Olvera and that case now sets the standard statewide. It had a major impact on how summary judgment works in Texas.

So until you can name one successful Republican appointee who has won as a Republican you have no evidence a Republican can win.

Cascos won because Hinojosa lost - it is that simple.

Tony Garza as a Republican won because he is a very good man. He went door to door telling people who he is.

He may be a brilliant lawyer and statesman because he is humble enough to know in the end you need the blessing of the people. This is lost on Hinojosa and the Democratic Political machine of Cameron county.

But with Hillary at the top of the ticket come November 2016, a very large number of Cameron county Democrats are going to pull a straight ticket.

You know if you were smart you wound understand this post is more about how Governor Abbott can make sure his appointee remains in power - not an attack on the Republicans.

The name you hear most is exactly the right person I described. The person has good financial ties to the Republicans, but can easily pull off a win as s Democrat.

Bobby WC

Trey Garza said...

Republicans simply do not win in Cameron County without other exceptional circumstances assisting them. Cascos had the "Save Isla Blanca Park" movement. Tony Garza followed Ray Ramon. Other than those two exceptions to the rule, there have not been any Republicans to win a county wide election.

The same can be said for anglos who are democrats. John Wood is a really nice, competent and approachable Democrat yet he lost to Carlos Cascos. I suspect it was because he was Anglo and not because Carlos was particularly strong. The lone exception to the "anglo" rule recently has been Menton Murray, but then again he was first elected during a different time. Back then, Cameron County elected people like Judge Hester.

I am not sure if we will ever see another anglo win county wide office in my life time. If you go to the courthouse and look at the pictures of past county elected officials you will see that they were all anglos before about 1980, after that there was change to hispanics and we have not had an anglo county judge for many, many years now.

Cameron County is predominately hispanic and democrat, and that is who we elect.