Friday, July 17, 2015

 
THE 2016 CAMERON COUNTY PRIMARIES

It is not too early to be discussing this election.  If your name is not out there yet, your chances of winning are getting slimmer and slimmer.  This is a presidential election and the turnout is going to be big.  You will need money, and a strong political machine.  If you do not have a strong political machine and money you are just kidding yourself.  You need to stop listening to people who say - no one likes the incumbent so you can win - as we all know that did not work one bit against Tony Martinez.

COUNTY JUDGE

This is a wide open race.  At this point it is anyone's guess.  I personally want a new face.  I want someone who can explain why Cameron county and Brownsville were left behind in terms of a mextroplex, and how they are going to turn things around.  I do not care who you are or who you are tied to.  If you can do these two things with honesty, you will have my support.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY

If I had to bet today, DA Saenz wins by at least 55% of the vote.  The BV is the only member of the social media telling the truth about our overall readership.  It is not high enough to impact anything but a very close election.  Brownsville and Cameron county do not even know we exist.

If I hear people say La Pulga or Cheezmeh, they always follow it is where they go for stupidity and idol gossip.  These people are not voters.

If Juanito were still under payment by Saenz, he would be painting Saenz as the second coming with all of these publicity photo opts.  Guys this is politics.  This is what elected officials do.  With a good percentage of the voters, it seals the vote.  Saenz is the incumbent and has the advantage on this issue.  No opponent can effectively undo positive press for the incumbent.

The fundamental problem in this election is, while Saenz may have a lot of people who want him out, reality is still reality.  For at least three years social media pounded Tony Martinez.  The last I checked he wiped the ground with Pat Ahumada.  With everything Tony did wrong he was still more palatable than Ahumada.  And herein lies the problem.

On a personal level I like Carlos Masso.  He is running an everyone hates Saenz's campaign - you know why?  Because that is all he has.  Masso can run for office, but not from himself.  He grew up in a hopelessly corrupt Cameron county legal system.  He is too tied to it. 

Carlos Masso is Saenz Pat Ahumada, with the exception he will not on a daily basis put a bullet in his head and then ask why he has a hole in his head.  Carlos Masso is not a palatable alternative Saenz.

Saenz is untouchable by the feds.  They may despise him, but they are not going to act to help Masso get elected. 

The lawyers who help fund the campaigns are not going to anger Saenz by openly backing Masso.  It is too big of a gamble.  The only way Saenz loses is if he is indicted, which given the Oscar de la Fuente mess with the feds is highly unlikely, or the feds force him to withdraw from the race.

MASSO'S ONLY CHANCE

He needs to start yesterday with Herald ads asking the question, why did Saenz not prosecute Oscar de la Fuente after he testified under oath he bribed Villalobos.  This undoes Saenz's entire campaign of fixing the corruption.  With each ad just include cut outs from Saenz campaign finance reports showing donations from de la Fuente.

Saenz's only response will be he had no choice because the feds asked him not to, at which point he will have given up the only leverage he has against the feds.

Short of making the election about Oscar de la Fuente, Masso does not have much.  Saenz is a strong incumbent with lots of really good photo opts which make him look effective.  Voters read snippets and headlines and not long explanations as to why Saenz had nothing to do with the return of Amit Livingston.

SHERIFF LUCIO

In simple terms he will win - why anyone else is even bothering is beyond me. This is a presidential election year.  The Cameron County Democrats will turn out and in large measure pull a straight ticket for Hillary.  Lucio is a shoe in for reelection.

Running late - doctor waiting on Buster for bandage change.  Commissioners court will be another day - but unless someone with a lot of money gets in the race yesterday Sofia Benavides or her niece will win.  She knows how to run a campaign and has a well oiled machine. 

2 comments:

#nomorecheezmeh said...

Also why hasn't the Saenz has not convicted that lard ass of el cheezmeh

BobbyWC said...

On what basis? Further, Castro is reliable to promote Saenz's propaganda without question

Bobby WC