Saturday, May 16, 2015



THE COUNT BEGINS AT 10 A.M.

UPDATE -  SWEARING IN AND RUN-OFF

An amended agenda issued today includes the swearing in of commissioners Cesar de Leon and Jessica Tetreau-Kalifa.  The run-off will be Saturday June 13, 2015

UPDATE AND FINAL

TETREAU BEATS ZARATE WITH A FINAL COUNT OF 18 OVER ZARATE.

The Board found one provisional ballot for Zarate and zero for Tetreau.  With 55 undercount, a recount will not matter.  Zarate would have to win 19 new votes which were undercounted while Tetreau receives zero.  If Tetreau were to receive 5 new votes from the undercount, then Zarate would need 25. You get the picture.

It is Zarate's right to pay for a recount.  I will be the first to support him in asking for a recount.  For over 20 years the Republicans have fought every effort to change Texas law on this issue.  In other states with a margin of 1% or less the recount is automatic at no cost to the candidate.  This should be the law in Texas.  It is sadly not the law.  If it were the recount would be automatic at no expense to Zarate.

LONGORIA  - PEREZ IN RUN-OFF

The Board found no valid provisional ballots.

As to a recount, Michael Gonzalez could pull off a miracle, but I think it is a lot of money on a slim margin.  Perez is just as likely to get new votes from a recount as Gonzalez, and Rick could out right win.  We shall see what Gonzalez and Zarate do.  It is their right to call for a recount, and I support that right.

My source is pretty solid, but I am waiting for the official release by the elections office or the city.

ORIGINAL POST

Because there are many reasons some one's ballot may have been designated provisional, this can take from a couple of hours to an entire day.  We have no way of knowing how much evidence the Board needs to review.  If it were so simple as the voter bringing in a copy of their picture ID it would go fast.  But they all are not going to be picture ID problems.

As soon as I know the new numbers I will post them.

I will be shocked to see any change in the end results.  A few numbers may change, but with only 8 provisional ballots in the Longoria race, there are not enough for Gonzalez or Rick to change the final result.  Gonzales would need 4 new votes and Perez getting zero for a change in place 2. As to Rick he cannot take a majority, because with every provision ballot which goes his way, the number of votes he needs to get to 50 plus goes up.  For example if Rick were to get 5 more votes, he would then actually need 7 to overcome the 50 plus mark.  So Rick cannot win outright.  It is an impossibility.

There are 25 provisional ballots in the Tetreau race.  Zarate would need 20 of those to be declared the winner.  19 would mean an automatic recount with neither side having to pay.  The chances of Zarate getting 19 or 20 of the provisional ballots with Tetreau getting none is so low, it is fair to say the final outcome will not change today.


A RECOUNT

This is the more interesting thing.  In the Longoria race a recount would most benefit Michael Gonzalez, but it is still a long shot.  But it is a two edge sword, a recount could deliver an outright victory to Longoria.  Although I think that is highly unlikely.  But I do think if Gonzalez can pick up at least one more vote closer to Perez he will pay for a recount.

In the Tetreau/Zarate race, depending on how the numbers go, a recount may be worth the money.  But Zarate would have to get within 5 votes to have a chance of a change in a recount. 

If a recount is requested, Tetreau holds over until the recount is complete. 

In the end my money is on nothing changing after all is said and done.  Statistically the one with the best chance of changing anything is Michael Gonzalez. 

But then I could be wrong.  Even if Longoria were to get all 8 provisional ballots that would still only put him at exactly 50% - not enough for a win.

THE UNDERCOUNT ISSUE

The Tetreau/Zarate race shows 55 under votes.  This happens because maybe some people voted in the at large race or mayor's race and chose to not vote for either Tetreau or Zarate.  Or when the ballots were scanned the machine missed some ballots which were for either Tetreau of Zarate.  This is what Zarate would be looking for in a recount.

If Zarate could change the outcome based on the provisional ballots which puts him within 15 votes of Tetreau, that would mean of the 55 undercount there would have to be 16 mistakes of undercounting which favor Zarate  and not one for Tetreau.  While statistical probability does not favor Zarate, one never knows until every ballot is checked and double checked. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Only 4 provisional in Brownsville were cured. Zarate picked up one vote. District 1 was unaffected (no votes at all)