Thursday, May 28, 2015



RECOUNT PARSING THE NUMBERS - IN THE REAL WORLD

After the last recount in a city election Ernie Hernandez lost one vote and Sally Arroyo lost two

"BROWNSVILLE — Former mayor Pat M. Ahumada Jr. and former commissioner Ernie L. Hernandez Jr. are headed to a June 16 runoff election for the mayor’s seat now that Friday’s vote recount is complete.

The recount that Commissioner Sally Miniel Arroyo requested after losing a spot in the runoff to Hernandez by 40 votes had her losing by a 41-vote spread.
 
Hernandez received 2,046, down from 2,047, while Arroyo’s new total is 2,005, down from 2,007, according to the Cameron County Elections Office."

Click for original story:

I completely support Sergio Zarate in his effort at a recount.  It is his right.  Also I think we are long past the time wherein Texas should change the law to mandate an automatic recount when the margin is 1% or less.

BUT REALITY STILL MATTERS

In the above recount wherein in the end Pat Ahumada became mayor last time around when he actually won, the candidates actually lost votes.

Zarate is relying on the undercount in hopes of picking up enough votes to pass Tetreau.  As to the original count, it is highly unlikely that the scanner made a mistake against Zarate by 18 votes, while not making one mistake against Tetreau.

From the Herald:

"While May 9 returns showed zero over votes in the race, there were at least 55 under votes, meaning a voter did not vote in the District 2 race at all. Zarate admitted it was those unknown votes that led him to decide that night he would ask for a recount."

Click for the story

BUT WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE

Real analysis is based on actual facts and not drama to create a fake story. 

The elections office informed the candidates that there were 25 provisional ballots in the Tetreau/Zarate race.  Until those ballots were reviewed Remi Garza the Interim Elections Administrator had no way of knowing if anyone actually voted for a district 2 candidate.  All he knew was they were from district 2 voters.

After they were reviewed, it was learned of the 25 provisional ballots only one contained a vote for either Tetreau or Zarate.  This means 24 of the provisional ballots did not contain a vote for either Tetreau or Zarate.  Had they not been provisional ballots and been included from the beginning we would then have an undercount of 79, because in addition to the 55 known undercount being reported we would have the additional 24 discovered in the provisional ballots.

So you do the math, if 24 of the 79 undercount have already been confirmed to not contain a vote for either Tetreau or Zarate, what are the odds that of the remaining 55 there are enough mistakes which only favor Zarate?  Astronomical

If this election is flipped it will be a statistical anomaly unheard of.  It might even be enough to get the AG to immediately seek a court order to secure the ballots.  But anomalies do happen.

No one is panicking over this recount - it is nothing more than made up drama to create a story where one does not exist.

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