Tuesday, August 19, 2014


CALLING 2 OF THE THREE SEATS FOR SCHOOL BOARD

The most interesting election will be between Lucy Longoria and Cesar Lopez.  Lucy Longoria will win with somewhere between 27-30% of the vote.  Remember people BISD has no runoff - who has the most votes, regardless of how small the percentage may be wins.

Strategically this was a smart move on Lucy Longoria's part.  You have one female and 4 males.  With 50% or more of the voters being female and considering the blind female vote, Lucy should have no problem securing 27-30% of the vote which should be more than enough to win.

I realize my readers are educated on the  candidates, but the overwhelming number of voters are not.  What the voters will see are endless attack ads which tend to turn them off.  It is a very difficult challenge to tell voters who you are and why you are qualified while tearing down your opponent.

I am hard pressed to believe the kind of money needed for this major battle can be raised by either side.  Block walking may help, but in a city wide election block walking is a challenge.  Mailers to everyone who voted in the primaries could be costly - and then you have to hope the mailer is used for anything more than a dust pan.

Based simply on the blind female vote and the fact Lucy can win with 27% of the vote, I believe this is an easy call for Lucy Longoria.

Joe Rod v. Shirley Bowman v. Mary Rey  - Everyone knows that Shirley Bowman is a Cata Presas-Garcia puppet.  They are tied at the hips big time.  This coupled with Shirley's reputation makes it difficult for her to prevail.  Mary Rey needs to stay in this race if for no other reason to split the blind female vote.  It is not a question of Mary Rey not having a message - she simply does not have the money or political machine to get the message out.  But Mary Rey with the Latino name will do better than Bowman among the blind female voters.

Joe Rod will raise the money and have the backing of a lot of political machines.  While I cannot imagine any scenario wherein Lucy Longoria loses, I do see the remote possibility that Shirley Bowman wins based on the blind female vote and a strong attack campaign against Joe Rod.  A lot of contract money is going to have to go to Shirley Bowman to raise what is needed to pull off a strong attack on Joe Rod.

Carlos Elizondo v. Susan Fox and Robert Rodriguez.  There is no doubt Carlos Elizondo among the general public has the better name recognition at this time.  His problem is, he pulled an Oscar X. Garcia.  He told a lot of people who would run from Cata Presas-Garcia and Lucy Longoria to get their money and then switched sides to that of Cata Presas-Garcia and Lucy Longoria.  There are a lot of mad people.

Both his opponents have the advantage of being highly experienced educators.  But the negative on Elizondo and the positive of his opponents could me worthless if they cannot raise the money.  Susan Fox will get a lot of the female vote, but without the Latino name it will not be a strong showing.  Shirley Bowman faces the same problem.

This election is impossible to call.  Everyone who is committed to keeping the Healthsmart lawsuit alive needs to demand that each of the candidates take a public position on it.  If Cata and Lucy do not get the majority they seek, after the election I suspect Healthsmart will settle for upwards of $7 million.  But if Cata and Lucy get the majority they need with Elizondo and Bowman, you can kiss that $7 million good-bye as the lawsuit is dismissed.

HEALTHSMART

My view is simple - this is all I care about.  It is now up to the voters to demand that each and every candidate take a public position on the Healthsmart lawsuit.  Will they vote to dismiss it or will they let it continue through the courts.  It is costing BISD nothing, so why would anyone want to dismiss it?  Answer their past and current campaigns are being funded by Ted Parker and Healthsmart.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I suppose Montoya will be kind to Elizondo.

BobbyWC said...

Only because he is being paid. If Fox or Rodriguez offer a bigger check watch how fast Montoya finds god - it will not be the first time he switches sides based on the size of the check

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

I really hope you are wrong. BISD cannot afford to keep that Luci woman. She is suing for millions and still has the nerve to run again for school board. This woman is a low life.

BobbyWC said...

The problem is 79.999% of the people can reject her and she can still win. BISD elections are not about who is best, it is about who receives the most votes.

Personally I think we should demand each candidate support a change to require a majority to win

Think about it with as little as 20.1 % of the vote Luci can win - does that sound very Democratic or in the best interest of the community.

The good news is some of the candidates will be lucky to get 5% of the vote - this will open votes for other candidates than Lucy - but from a mere numbers point of view a lot of women will vote for Lucy as a woman without an ounce of knowledge about any of the candidates

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

First of all I think board members should not be suing the district. All they are doing is hurting our community and the children of Brownsville. So there for I shall not be voting for Longoria or presas. I will give my vote to carlos Elizondo he is a better candidate with more commitment to help our children.

BobbyWC said...

You need to vote for whomever you think is best - it is really that simple - you should not allow anyone to tell you otherwise.

But your post has a significant contradiction in it - you say Longoria should not be suing the district and then you endorse the candidate is working to help Longoria get reelection - your right and I will defend that right

But I find these type contradictions funny

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

Mary Rey would win this race....

Mary is a fine lady!! And we desperately need her on this Board. She's someone who would not lose control, while controlling whatever the situation may be!!