Tuesday, November 26, 2013

 
UNDERSTANDING THE IRAN DEAL, AND HOW CONGRESS NEVER SEEMS TO LEARN FROM HISTORY

I know this is a lesson post, but this is a good time to teach the effects of the "Revolution of Rising Expectations." I hate when people say Reagan won the Cold War.  No he did not - if anything through extreme incompetence he extended it.  I can see Gorbachev in his office on a daily basis asking himself - can this guy be this stupid?  Well yes - and same goes for the Democrats and Republicans opposing President Obama on the Iran deal.

Nixon who won the Cold War, understood that by opening China and the Soviet Union to more western ideas, and prosperity, internal change in China and the Soviet Union would come naturally.

Iran has a new moderate leader, chosen by the people - albeit under the supervision of the religious leaders.

As the sanctions are lifted, this deal will give Iran's new president political capital against the religious leaders to continue to liberate Iran.  The liberation of Iran from the religious leaders is the only solution to the nuclear question. 

Do I know this will work - no - but it is something which has worked over and over again.  The Iranian people will see a positive change in their lives as the sanctions are lifted.  The new moderate president of Iran will get the credit.  This will empower him in the eyes of the people.  This will weaken the religious leaders.  It is truly this simple.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

BWC stay local with you political commentary, it is not that simple. Geo-political analysis is not trivial especially when you factor in a nuclear Iran.

BobbyWC said...

It's simple on the policy issue and the why? On the reaction geopolitical for the region it is not simple and subject to debate.

There are people in Israel, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere who benefit politically and financially from the constant political turmoil so they will oppose any deal with Iran - even surrender.

But on the objective of the Obama Administration it is simple.
answer me this - if life gets better in Iran will it or will it not give political capital to the new president?

At this point we are at a gamble - he may turn on us, or he may be able to use that political capital to shut down the nuclear option while doing injury to the religious leaders - unless we try and work with someone inside Iran we will accomplish nothing.

North Korea is moving forward with its plans because it has no leader who sees the benefit of working with us.

All of the sanctions in the world will never stop N Korea and realistically we cannot bomb their facilities - so what do we have - a nuclear armed N Korea sooner than later.

This policy on Iran could turn the corner in the right direction. But if the US waits for a policy which pleases Israel and Saudi Arabia and the other powers in the area we will never have a policy.

Right now under this plan we have 24/7 oversight of their facilities.

More sanctions will only serve to hurt the moderate president of Iran who wants to work with us,and further empower the religious leaders.

In 6 months if we have no movement, then we need to reassess the situation.

I intentionally left out the geopolitical concerns because I know enough there are powers within individual governments in the regions who want the strife to continue - our president of his foreign policy advisers know enough to just ignore them - you can never please everyone

In the end Obama will have additional political capital and so too will the Iranian president.

It will also give the more moderate voices in Israel more political capital which would be good for Israel - the current leadership will never develop policies which will help with the peace process

Bobby Wc

Anonymous said...

I completely understand that the Iranians are not Arab, although their mind set even though they are Indo-European rather than Semitic and Shiite rather that Sunni they do share a great respect for being cunning. “The Arab Mind” written by Raphael Patai is a must read for anyone trying to understand why people in the Middle East seem so much different than those from the Western Civilization.
Suffice to say that Cunningness and trustworthiness do not go hand in hand.
I really want to think that this may be the start to what could be peace in the Middle East, just like you do, but I don’t think that anything can be left to chance when it comes to trusting the Iranian Government. With that said, we will have to agree to disagree, and hope that this time the Iranians will do the right thing.

BobbyWC said...

Everything you say is correct - and thanks for adding background to the issue.

But here is the deal - do we never try and cut a deal? The reason I like this deal is the 24/7 inspections and oversight - for now they are not only not moving forward, they are producing less.

We have bought a 6 month cooling off period. If they cheat then we reimpose the sanctions.

The Israelis own the intellegence in this part of the world = they will tolerate no cheating - if the Iranians continue to move forward I am certain Israel will tell the US they intend to act with or without us.

The otherside if this works the new president with some political capital can give more and get more - in time the military may simply switch sides and the days of the religious leaders will end.

Iran will be a force one way or teh other - but better in the hands of progressives who are not religious leaders

Bobby WC