Friday, May 10, 2013


It does not matter who wins come tomorrow - nothing will change one way or the other.

The good news is Chris Davis intends to release early  voting and mail ballot results at 7:01 p.m.  A couple of weeks ago he explained the process to me.  Certain people have to be there before he can release the count.  If one person is late he cannot press enter.  But it is my understanding if everyone who needs to be there is  there, he will publish the numbers at 7:01 p.m.

Past elections have early voting as high as 60% of the vote.  Given this reality, the BV may be able to predict the winners by 7:02 p.m., even before the election day votes are released.

If historical patterns repeat themselves, Portillo has the Latina blind advantage - female voters uncertain of the candidates will vote for her simply because she is a female.  This is why we have a majority of females on the Brownsville City Commission and BISD.  The only reason we do not have a majority on Commissioners Court is woman are not seeking the position. 

So if history  repeats itself Portillo will be in the run-off.  I like David Belleperche, but his campaign never took off.  He will not make the run-offs.  He needs to get out there and get a commissioner to appoint him to several committees.  This will show people he is serious about public service.  It also allows the power brokers to get to know him.  I see David eventually holding public office.  He just needs time to get better educated on the process, and the reality of budgets.

Every city commission should have a mix of different people who bring different things to the table.  Leo Rosales is the best candidate in his race.  Social services in Brownsville suck big time.  He will bring those issues to the table.  Leo is also smart enough to know he needs to build coalitions to get what he wants.  He will not be part of some group of three getting nothing done.

In the other two races, Letty has the female advantage - but her disadvantage is people know her.  It is any one's guess  what will happen in that race.

In the Gowen/Uresti race I tend to believe Gowen will have an easy victory.  She has the blind female vote advantage.  She also has a political machine behind her.  Uresti is a good man - he cares deeply for his community.  He works hard for his community.  He simply does not understand how to run a city, budgets or taxes. 

Beyond predicting Portillo will be in the run-offs, I am not willing to bet anything on this election.

The BV will be back at 7:01 p.m. Saturday, unless I receive another late night press release for another Press Conference at the court house at 9 am. 

the next two weeks are going to be hell for me.  I will be managing way too many things while spending 8 hours a day in the federal court house.  I have remodelling which must be done by the end of the month - a ton of yard work - the grass needs mowing every three - four days - it takes me 2 1/2 hours.  The pool takes about three hours a week. 

In the immediate near future I will be spending a week near the Hamptons on Long Island - actually Peconic Bay - maybe one day in NYC - I want to go see "Nance" with Nathan Lane.  After these next two weeks I will need time away.  I am just waiting for my brother to confirm the days he will be taking off.  He has a summer house next to the bay.

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