Friday, October 21, 2011


What follows below is a summary of what the various Democratic Party groups are trying to accomplish in the redistricting litigation.  As I have noted before, the upstate Democrats have no interest in Cameron County.  The Republicans will want to try and protect Farenhold.  Although, I do believe he can and will defeat Villalobos hands down.  It will be a blood bath.  But if they decide to adjust the 27th, it will mean Villalobos will have to run against Ruben Hinojosa.  This will not happen.  Gilbert Hinojosa will threaten Villalobos with political castration before he allows Villalobos to run against Ruben Hinojosa.

Let's see how long it takes Gilberto Hinojosa to throw Villalobos under the bus to satisfy the upstate Plantation Democrats.

"The Plaintiffs’ Interim Plans

All of the plaintiffs’ plans have substantial similarities, though they differ in the details.

All would add a new Hispanic opportunity district in North Texas, and all, in some way, would restore Lloyd Doggett’s congressional seat (CD-25)- most by creating a ‘tri-ethnic’ coalition seat strongly anchored, if not wholly contained, in Travis County. All also would make adjustments to CD-23- currently represented by freshman Republican, Quico Canseco- to improve the district’s ability the elect the “Hispanic candidate of choice.”

However, there also are divergences.

Proposals submitted separately by MALC and State Senator Wendy Davis and State Representative Marc Veasey would create an additional African-American opportunity district in the DFW Metroplex (CD-35 in both Plan C211 and Plans C202 and C204).

By contrast, the Texas Latino Redistricting Task Force and Travis County plaintiffs would forgo that seat and, instead, create a new Hispanic opportunity seat in Harris County (CD-36 in the Task Force’s Plan C213 and CD-36 in the Travis County plaintiffs’ Plan C166).

Ditto Travis County (only more so).

LULAC, the Travis County plaintiffs, the Davis/Veasey plaintiffs, and NAACP, each have proposed interim maps that would undo the controversial new San Antonio/Austin seat (CD-35) - thus, avoiding what looks to be an increasingly nasty Doggett/Castro fight.

In place of that district, the Davis/Veasey plaintiffs would keep a Central Texas-based Hispanic opportunity district (CD-33 in Plan C204), centered in Bexar County and running northwards into western Bastrop County, just on the other side of the county line from Travis County. The NAACP, likewise, would create a slightly different Hispanic opportunity district (CD-28 in Plan C193) that runs from San Antonio to the Hays County/Travis County line.

LULAC and the Travis County plaintiffs, by contrast, each would draw a new north/south Hispanic opportunity district running from Bexar County to the U.S./Mexico border.

MALC and the Latino Task Force, however, choose to keep an Austin/San Antonio district in place (CD-34 in Plan C211 and CD-35 in Plan C213)- though both would somewhat reduce the portion of Travis County contained in the new district.  (Note this is not the 34th for Cameron County - it is a different plan)
MALC’s Plan C211 also would put Lloyd Doggett’s current seat (CD-25) wholly west of I-35 (where it would be 69.1% Anglo).

The Latino Task Force would anchor the Doggett seat in western Travis County but run it east to take in large parts of Bastrop and Guadalupe counties. As with MALC’s proposal, the district would be heavily Anglo (63.8% to be exact).

The other plaintiffs’ proposals would anchor the Doggett district in East Austin.

Complicated? Well, kinda of par for the course with the Travis County situation from the get go."


Anonymous said...

I don't understand your concern. The valley has roughly 1.4 million people. The average number of people per congressional seat is about 700,000. We should only have two congressman. The way the lines are currently drawn the valley has three in congress. The way the lines are drawn now, Cameron County is the population anchor for District 34. You can't win without Cameron County. Cameron County is not big enough population wise to be it's own congressional seat. Hidalgo County, on the otherhand, is about big enough for it's own congressional seat. As it stands now they have two congressmen.

BobbyWC said...

My only issue was a discussion on whether or not Villalobos will have a new district to run in - I think he will not.

For years I have discussed how the Upstate Plantation Democrats have ignored us - the redistricting debate by the Dems show they are still ignoring us.

I personally think if there is a compromise Ruben Hinojosa will be our Congressman - all of Cameron and part of Hidalgo - they will take some of his area which goes north and give it to Farenhold - they may also give Farenhold SPI and Port Isabel

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

Villalobos, no matter what, will have a new district to run in because there is no way 27 stays completely the same. With the nomination, he will run whether it's against Farenthold or some other Republican. It is pretty clear it is in the best interest of Cameron County to be apart from Corpus. Port of Brownsville being chief among them. I see no reason for Villalobos not to run against Ruben Hinojosa. What else is he going to do? He already has 5 people running for DA. He isn't going to change his mind unless he pulls a Kay Bailey on them. We don't have the population to have more congressional represenation. I still don't understand how it is you want the Democrats to do more when the Republicans gave the valley three congressmen. Do you want the Democrats to dillute our voting base by adding a fourth?

BobbyWC said...

I have not sid a word wherein I am asking for anything - where are you getting this - you need to look for the theme of the piece - Villalobos being thrown under the bus.

I can see them putting SPI. Port Isabel and the Port with Farenthold and everything else with Ruben Hinojosa - I would be very happy with this - it protects Farenthold - which the Republicans will do one way or the other.

Ruben will outraise Villalobos big time - every key Democrat in the state will stand with Ruben - Villalobos is in trouble if Cameron COunty does not get the 34th - This is all I am saying

Villalobos can run, but it does not mean he will win - he cannot beat Ruben - bottom line

Bobby WC

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

Your theme can't be "Villalobos being thrown under the bus." The different plantiffs are all thinking how best to mess with Villalobos' campaign. I don't think you know what the meaning of "theme" is. Villalobos, in your post, is tagential at best.

If the Republicans wanted to protect Farenthold they would go north and cut off his contact with the valley. The number of Democrats in Willacy would out number the Republican vote in SPI, PI, and the Port alone. I don't think you understand how redistricting works or how to protect someone. You also assume that Farenthold will be the Republican nominee again.

Ruben is old. He isn't a good campaigner. Armando is young, energetic, slick and will run a better campaign even if it's against Ruben. I don't think it's an easy a win for Ruben as you think even with the Plantation Democrats you think would support Ruben.

BobbyWC said...

I do understand throwing under the bus - the reference was to Gilbert Hinojosa who will serve Villalobos up on a platter to please the upstate plantation democrats.

It is clear you are unfamiliar with the proposed 34th - they already moved Farenhold north and made the 34th basically a Cameron county and then some district.

The original post makes clear the upstate Plantation Democrats do not want the 34th in Cameron County.

In simple terms to keep Farenhold safe they have to move Ruben Hinojosa over to Cameron County - this also works with the district they want to make which goes south from SA.

It is clear you are not familiar with the proposed 34th.

Bobby WC

Anonymous said...

Bobby said, "...For years I have discussed how the Upstate Plantation Democrats have ignored us - the redistricting debate by the Dems show they are still ignoring us..." I would also include the NATIONAL PLANTATION DEMS in your group. Could it be that Valley Dims are ALL KOOL-AID DRINKERS so why court them they're in the dems pocket already !!!!!!!