Monday, November 3, 2008

A FINAL PARSING OF THE POLLS, AND WHY THE LRGV DOES NOT VOTE

But first, on the firing of Jim Goza - you sleep with dogs you get fleas. Unfortunately for the city of Brownsville this City Commission is looking for a city attorney who will rubber stamp their antics and illegal conduct. Jim Goza was not that man - at least some of the time. To his successor will go the spoils of war - except what goes around comes around. In May after the composition of the City Commission changes the new city attorney could also find himself fired for all of the wrong reasons.

THE ELECTION

The following link is for following the election results for Texas.

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_141.htm

The following link is for following Cameron County election results.

http://www.co.cameron.tx.us/Elections/results.html

Not only in the State of Texas, but throughout the country early voting has been remarkable. As of Wednesday 2.7 million Texans cast early ballots in the 15 largest counties. This compares with only 2.4 million total in 2004.

http://www.statesman.com/search/content/gen/ap/TX_BC_TX_Early_Voting.html

In Cameron County 23.59 % of the registered voters cast ballots. Hidalgo County saw a turnout of 28.63%. Denton and Collin County are heavy Republican Counties. Their numbers are 48.61% and 51.75% respectively. Dallas and Travis Counties which are Democratic Counties saw turnouts of 42.05% and 49.06% respectively.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=1561

The question is why in a year when Democrats are slaughtering the Republicans is it that Hidalgo and Cameron County voters are not turning out in the same record numbers as the rest of the state? This is the year of the Democrats - there is no getting around this simple fact. The Republicans gave us the border wall war. One would think these two traditionally Democratic Counties would have large turnouts.

The answer is not very complex. I believe the majority of the people are at their limits with the corruption which LRGV Democrats treat as a birthright. I along with several people I know could not bring myself to vote for Sheriff Lucio for one reason and one reason only - he is a Cameron County Democrat. I think Sheriff Lucio believes he is in trouble, which he may not be. His political ad raising a private feud between Joe Cisneros and his brother was the most despicable ad I saw by any candidate in Cameron County. You have to be feeling the pressure to be that despicable. Anyway the other day I was at Palm Resaca, a retirement park, and became blown away by the number of people who told me they voted for Joe and Vaden for the same reasons. All of these people such as myself also voted for Obama. I do not know if Joe can win, but I think if he makes a strong showing, the Cameron County Democrats better start rethinking their policy that being corrupt is a birthright.

OBAMA

I am not prepared to call this election for Obama. When I look at the polls and the methodology behind the polls I become worried that there are so many unknown variables in this election that the polls are simply not reliable. If the crowds at the Obama events vs the McCain events are a valid indicator, Obama should win by a landslide.

There is another interesting bit of evidence which points to an Obama win, other than the polls. CNN has a great map of early voting totals. In states where people are registered by political party affiliation the early voting is broken down by political party turnout. The early voting in West Virginia and North Carolina, must wins for McCain, clearly show Democrats outnumbered Republicans by high percentages.

In West Virginia the Democrats outnumbered Republicans in terms of early ballots by 58,000 to 30,000. This cannot be good for McCain. In North Carolina the numbers are 1.3 million to 744 thousand. In both cases it is nearly a 50% greater turnout for the Democrats. Again, this does not bode well for McCain. Even in Louisiana twice as many Democrats voted early as Republicans. This election may be one where the polls are meaningless. Even with this data, I remain on the fence as to who will win. You see I do not carry the burden of having to be right. But I am too chicken shit to make a prediction.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/27/early.voting.map/index.html

If Obama wins, I hope those who opposed him, for a brief second, before taking on their important roles as the loyal opposition, can sit back and say - what a great moment for America. It took 13 generations for the son of an African to go from slave to president. It will be a great moment for American history. It will be a great moment for the American people. It will also be a testament to the American people that after you take your moment to feel pride that the son of an African immigrant can become president, you can rightfully and more importantly dutifully so take on your role as the loyal opposition. This is what makes America great.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Unfortunately for the city of Brownsville this City Commission is looking for a city attorney who will rubber stamp their antics and illegal conduct."

Job description for Mark Sossi
Tomas

Mas Triste said...

Until those numbers come up, we will never compete for the same amount of attention, regardless party.

We don't vote, so we don't matter.

BobbyWC said...

Kurgan, normally I would agree with you on this one, but the unique power the LRGV holds in terms of electing Democrats state wide changes things.

For 8 years the Dems in Austin called me every name under the sun for demanding they give a Latino a fair shot at running for the US Senate. They finally realized that without a Latino at the top of the ballot for US Senate, the Democrats had no hope of winning statewide.

They looked among their own and found Noriega - a Latino by name and veteran - only one problem - he is not a Latino in spirit and his intellectual development is on par with Palin's -

Noriega is so arrogant and devoid of LRGV politics that he saw no reason to even introduce himself to the people - he assumed he owns the LRGV vote -

Noriega was the wrong man for the job.

There are people in Austin who understand they are in trouble until the LRGV turns out, Maybe today's numbers will be enough to put a few Dems over the top for the Texas Supreme Court - who knowns.

Austin will look hard and long at the LRGV and will finally come to the conclusion that they must clean-up the corruption -

The only possible thing which could happen to hurt the LRGV is for the Dems to win tonight without the LRGV vote - this would be real bad for the LRGV

this is why they will pay attention to us - because in the end - without us - they have nothing.

BObby WC

Mas Triste said...

BW,

What you are saying seems to support what I am saying.

Houston is nearing 50% and El Paso votes much more than the RGV.

Besides, Tony Sanchez was a much better state wide canidate than Noriega. The DNC basically turned their back on him.