Thursday, October 30, 2008

IF OBAMA WINS, WHAT WILL THE MORNING AFTER BE LIKE?

I did not watch Obama last night. Like so many others I am suffering from election fatigue. The political talking heads apparently are not suffering from election fatigue. They have already raised the question if Sarah Palin will be the lead Republican candidate for the 2012 election.
I am not trusting the polls. There are simply too many unknown variables. Also, I have been looking at the methodology of the polls. I think far too many are assuming based on other polling data there are more Democrats in the US than Republicans. One poll I looked at polls 40% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 27% Independents. These numbers are based on other polls which measure how many Americans are Democrats, Republicans, or Independents. There are simply too many places for mistakes to trust the polls this time around.

If Obama wins what can we expect the morning after? I think it is fair to say Rush Limbaugh will lash out at Sarah Palin in a way which will make everything her Democratic opponents said seem tamed. It is no great secret that McCain staffers have called her a diva, and a nut-job. I fully expect McCain staffers to be all over the news the next morning blaming Palin for McCain’s failed election bid. In the end it was his campaign and his decisions. Hopefully he will go out with enough grace to take responsibility for his own decisions. Karl Rove however will be happy. I remain convinced Rove pushed Palin on McCain to insure his loss. Rove is looking at a complete Republican take-over in 2010 and 2012.

Given these realities I think it highly unlikely Republican insiders will consider Palin to be anything but a nightmare with no future in the national Republican Party. I also think McCain will resign from the Senate within the year. With hopes for the White House for ever in his past, he will no longer see a need to be in the Senate.

Back to Rush for a minute - he will probably also claim Obama stole the election and that he was able to steal the election with the help of activist judges. According to Rush, the Supreme Court intervention 8 years ago never happened. For the record I never disagreed with the ruling of the Supreme Court in Gore v. Bush. I disagreed with the timetable which made it impossible for a real recount.

How we as a nation feel about Obama as president will have a lot to do with how fast the economy recovers. If come January 20th the nation has a sense of hope, there is a chance Obama can lead the country into recovery. Obama is not a stupid man. He knows he cannot propose economic policies which mainstream economists would call disastrous. This would leave the people with a negative perception as to its probable success.

1 comment:

Mas Triste said...

The morning after will begin with the "Managing Expectations" briefing.