Tuesday, May 27, 2008


The Reagan Bush war on Central America created an exodus from Central America of political and economic refugees. Most of those refugees are US Citizens now, and will vote in November for Obama. Originally they were Republicans and Independents, but the Republican move to deport millions of Latinos has cost the Republican Party the support of Central Americans. Many of these Central Americans have seen their family members rounded-up, homes foreclosed on and the American dream lost because of the Republican Party.

The failure of Bush II to address the immigration issue, and the oil issue is creating a second waive of economic refugees from Central America. These people are waiting for the changing of the guard in Washington to make their move. The situation in Central America is dismal. Most cities, including the capitals are seeing electricity turned off for several hours a day. Truckers have stopped moving food and other commerce because there is no money for diesel. In many of the old markets rooting food is all that is available.

The US and other international aid organizations spent millions on providing Central American farmers with small tractors to increase food production These tractors now sit idol because there is no money for fuel or repairs. Production at factories is decreasing because electricity is being shut down to the factories for several hours a day.

With the economies collapsing because of the price of oil, economic disaster is around the corner. For everything Hugo Chavez is, he is not a savior and cannot fix the problems being created by the high price of oil, and food shortages in Central America.

The flood of economic refugees from Central America is going to hit Mexico sooner than later. With Chernoff and Bush gone from Washington they are going to flood across the Rio Grande in droves. The US will not turn them away because to do so will create more civil wars in Central America. This time anti-US governments will be bought with oil. Oil has become the new weapon for enslaving people. The people of Central America will get in bed with the devil if that is what is need to survive. When Bush refused to help Nicaragua, they turned to Iran and Venezuela for oil. They had no choice. It was either cut a deal with the devil or starve.

The US along with most of the industrialized world has only one option. It is time to make it a criminal act to speculate on the price of oil. The US government, along with other industrialized governments have the ability to set the price of crude at $50.00 a barrel for all domestically traded oil. They can also make it a criminal act to trade in oil based on speculation. This will end the crisis tomorrow.

Now, if I were a betting man, I would say - by January of next year Brownsville and other border cities will be dealing with the crisis of economic refugees from Central America. I will also predict Congress will still be out playing golf, and taking trips while paying nothing more than lip service to the people. We are so screwed.


Anonymous said...

Mr. BWC,

So you want the wall/fence?


Just kiddin'


Mas Triste said...


Why is it that every time the United States engages in a proxy war, it is always "our war" and not the war of our proxy enemy?

Didn't you study the Soviets?
I thought they were there too.

That said, the immigration issue is much bigger than the conflicts in Central America, my Nicaraguan friend.

Centuries of no middle class, no infrastructure, internal battles, external conflicts, no investment in education, exploitation of the weak, exportation of human captal, narcotics trafficking and other mismanagement has contributed to the majority of woes for the nations of Central America.

Some have been fairy stable despite all of this. Ecuador embraced democracy in 1979 and has flourished. El Savador has come along nicely since they also created a representitive government.

In the end, CA still has many problems and not all of them are the fault of the US. In fact, investments from US companies have created a new middle class in several couintriues that have not existed.

The cause of much of the conflict came from an aggression push by subvertive communist conutries attempting to establish a foothold in our backyard, not from imperialismn on our part.


BobbyWC said...

The oil problem in CA is just one of the many problems being caused by the oil problem - $9.00 a gallon for desiel in the UK for example

Now a little history lesson - William Walker was the first US American to invade Nicaragua - in 1933 the US Marines entered Nicaragua and shot on sight anyone caught stealing after the earthquake - my mother was personal witness to the humanrights abuses by the US marines

Now Somoza was actually a savior who did create a strong middle-class - Nicaragua before the revolution had the fastest growing economy in Latin America

In 1978 I wrote a paper for a course in latin American Politics wherein I used released CIA and UN documents along with a long string of articles from the NYT to tie the Sandinistas to the Soviets and Cuba - my instuctor - an Anglo gave me a D and said I manipulated the evidence to just bad mouth the Sandinistas - I think we both know who was right-

I actually did not have a problem with Somoza II - I personally believed American Liberals misrepresented the situation under Tachito

There was a strong developing middle class - education was mandatory - families would bring children in from the country as part-time maids - they had to go to school during the day.

Community healthcare assistants were trained to make sure all children had their vaccinations -

La Prensa was closed down only after it published an editorial calling for rebellion - somehow I think the same thing would happen to the NYT

I know my facts on CA -

Had Reagan/Bush left the Sandinistas be and given them the aide without a million conditions the wars would have been avoided. The influence of the Soviets would have been limit - A key play Jaime Wheelock met with me just months after the take over -

The CIA attache got me the interview - he along with people like Commandande Zero were begging the US to not take the bait and help the Soviets.

The CIA opposed the Reagan Bush war - they knew better - had Reagan/Bush left the CIA to do its job the Soviets would have been left packing and the war would have been avoided. Reagan was obsessed with Soviets - he could not see straight which is why when the CIA told him the Talaban were dangerous he ignored their warnings.

I was there and watched a nation starve rather then be slaves to Tio Sam - Reagan/Bush made the same mistakes in Iran and we are still paying the price for that mistake.

Yes their are proxy wars - but this one was created by Reagan/Bush - the CIA had plenty of Sandinistas ready to play with the US - Reagan was too stupid to understand there were separate factions - his ignorance made it his war

Mas Triste said...


I would not say you have yo facts straight, I would say you are a qualified expert, on Nicaragua at least.

The US has been involved in Nicaragua since the early 1900's and I will crtainly concede that at that point in our history, we were certainly more imperial than today.

Both Somoza's flourished at that time, based in part, to US presence in the region and Nicaraguan investment b US corporations in particular.

The influence of the Soviets, through the Soviet sphere in the America's (Cuba) is much greater than you are giving them credit for. The entire Sandanista push was Russian financed.

Granted, the Somoza's did have a hand in their own uindoing, but at the time, were wee less than a decade removed from Vietnam and the threat of a fully communist nation gaining a foothold in CA was unacceptable.

This conclusion is based solely on whether you ever see the threat or not.

My point is that the blame for issues in CA do not lay at the feet of the US as you claim, the repsonsibility is spread evenly. Unfortunately, it is the people of the region who suffer when two T-Rex go at it.


BobbyWC said...

Kurgan did you even read what I wrote = you said

"The influence of the Soviets, through the Soviet sphere in the America's (Cuba) is much greater than you are giving them credit for. The entire Sandanista push was Russian financed"

I said

"In 1978 I wrote a paper for a course in latin American Politics wherein I used released CIA and UN documents along with a long string of articles from the NYT to tie the Sandinistas to the Soviets and Cuba"

Exactly how am I not giving the Soviets credit for their role in the matter - I wrote an entire paper on the matter linking the Soviets to the Sandinistas
Your problem is the same as Reagan's - no matter how hard the CIA tried they could not get him to understand that there were factions within the Sandinistas.

Had the CIA backed Comandante Zero in the beginning he would have cut and run on the Soviets, such as he eventually did - such as he eventually lead the counter-revolution in the south which eventually forced Ortega to have free elections.

Why did Reagan wait for Ortega to consolidate power over the military to finally agree to get in bed with fellow Sandinistas such as Violeta Chamorro, Comandante Zero, and Jaime Wheelock? Reagan was obsessed with taking down the Soviets at any cost

Comandante Zero controlled the military - he was the great hero of the war - I was in Nicaragua in 1975 when he raided the Legislature and held everyone hostage - there were no flights in and no flights out - he wasa the hero of the people

Had Reagan simply listened to the CIA there would have been no war - Zero was ready to dump the Soviets - Reagan said no - Ortega consolidated power over the military

At the point it was too late Reagan when it served his mental illness and hate for the Soviets authorized the recruitment of Zero who then lead the counter-revolution Violeta Chamorro eventually went on to be the first freely elected post revolutionary president.

So again if I wrote an entire paper putting the Sandinistas in the hands of the Soviets - exactly how did I under estimate their role in the mess.

After the Reagan/Bush war on CA started it became a proxy war -but only after Reagan demanded a proxy war and threw the pro US Sandinistas under the bus - hence it was his war

Mas Triste said...


I didn't misread what you had written. I interpreted what you had written to say that without US intervention, the problem would have sorted itself out, and thenwe may or may not have stepped in. That is a risk that we were not willing to take.

I said that you minimize the role of the Soviets and I should have said that you minimize the effect of the Soviets. If they backed Ortega, they would have crushed any counterrevolutionary uprising without our help, no?

Allowing to the process to materialize and essentially hoping for the best is exactly what we have done in Venezuela and that has not turned out so well.

You have quite a bit more background on this than I, but I say again that the impetus to act is based on how you perceive the threat.

Waiting to see which faction proved to be the strongest was something that apparently they were not willing to accept.

But then again, I have been known to be full of crap. :)


Anonymous said...

Enjoyable read gentlemen.


BobbyWC said...

First I find it sad that this discussion has been about a small background sub-note instead of the primary issue - the impact oil is going to have on the economies of CA and its attendent impact on the US as economic refugees flood the LRGV.

Back to Kurgan - and this is the analyst in me - I choose my words carefully - all I said was Reagan/Bush's war -

I did not give background to explain my reasoning for my words, but then it was a minute sub-note somewhat irrelevant to the bigger issue.

But I have now clarified the basis for my statement - Reagan was told by the CIA that Commandande Zero was ready and willing to stand with the US - he controlled the Sandinista military - he was the war hero - Ortega was a fat puke intellectual -

Reagan needed the proxy war to inflame the American people against the Soviets - This is why Reagan refused to align the US with Zero until it was too late - then we gave Zero the arms to fight Ortega and Castro - but Reagan from square one could have accepted the recommendations of the CIA and gone with Zero from day one and there would have been no war - this was not a waiting issue - Reagan expressly rejected the recommendations of the CIA

About two years before the fall of the Berlin wall, I wrote a graduate paper, based on a model of analysis, wherein I predicted the end of the Soviet empire and the Soviet COmmunist Party.

My primary source was "Problems of COmmunism." It was basically published by top level US intelligence officers - it was a US goverment publication.

I was blessed to be trained by one of the most brilliant political analysts in the US while at UTEP - when I do professional analysis I always use an analytical model which I create based on an indepth preanalysis, or from some earlier analysis used by a recognized expert in the field.

I took things like the Revolution of Rising Expectations and put them together in a model and then plugged in the facts - what came out was the end of the Soviet Union.

What amazed me was how much was out there published my US intellegence officers claiming Gorbachev was all but on his knees trying to end the Cold War but Reagan was doing everything to keep the Cold War alive

Reykjavic was a disaster because Reagan did not want a mutual surrender by the US and the Soviets in terms of the Cold War - he wanted the Soviets to be down on their knees - this caused a delay in the end of the Cold War


Thankfully, Gorbachev realized that the role of the true leader was to just end it in spite of Reagan, which is what Gorbachev did - I can think of no greater leader and man of courage than Gorbachev other than my mentor Tony Z.

Once Reagan the mad man was gone, Gorbachev could safely end the Cold War, without rebellion from the Soviet military, which is what he did.

For everything nasty we were told about the Soviet military, when the moment came they stood down and allowed for it to happen -

Gorbachev, the Soviet military, and Yeltsin were the great heros which brought an end to the Cold War -

not Reagan nor Bush I, who both for their own glorification kept the Cold War alive even at the expense of the lives of American men and women - even at the expense of training the Taliban

I hope I provided the necessary clarification - god I miss doing this work -

This is why I love the classroom because a true teacher loves the research behind the preparation of the lecture as much as they love their students - this is why I get so frustrated with professors who never update their lectures - it tells me they are not staying current - which means they have no business in the classroom

Thanks Kurgan _ I needed this - I got in at 3 p.m. after undergoing an MRA in SA at 3 a.m. - I just woke-up and needed to stimulate my brain

God I truly love teaching -

Did you know most government study programs no longer teach basis models of analysis - it is all about the bullshit opinion of some two bit pseudo intellectual who lacks the most basic critical thinking skills - a good government teacher allows the students to explore the ideas without imposing any sense of what is right or wrong

BObby WC